Testy Tuesday – Dow 12,000 or Dow 11,500?
June 16th, 2011
Are we “still too heavy“?
That was what I said about valuations back on May 4th, when we set new watch levels. $96 was our goal on oil, we hit that and went long yesterday. Of course, in our upside-down Wonderland Market, falling oil prices are somehow BAD for the Transports and we thought we accounted for that with our 2,448 target but they failed that last week and fell another 125 (5%) since then. Similarly (easier to write than say), the Nasdaq blew through our 2,700 line and bottomed out at 2,639 yesterday (-2.25%) but the Russell has been the biggest surprise, leading us all the way down to 773 in yesterdays action before bouncing back to lucky 777.
As we expected yesterday, the Dollar was sacrificed on the altar of keeping the markets from going to Hell in a handbasket dropping all the way from 75.20 to 74.80 (0.5%) which gave us only a flat market but the 74.60 line held in overnight and were back to 74.80 and now the pre-markets are wondering why they gained 0.75% in overnight trading. Oil po
Top Small Caps in News; Glu Mobile, Zagg
June 14th, 2011Shares of Glu Mobile Inc. (NASDAQ: GLUU), a San Mateo, California-based company engaged in the designing, marketing and sale of games for mobile phones, climbed in todays trade, up less than 1% to $4.71. The company late last month updated its financial guidance for the three-month period ended June 30, 2011.
Glu Mobile said that it expects non-GAAP revenue to come in between $16 million and $17 million for the three-month period ended June 30, 2011. The company’s previous guidance for non-GAAP revenue was $15-$16.5 million. The company expects its non-GAAP smartphone revenue to come in between $8.25 million and $8.75 million. Glu expects to report an operating loss of $1.3 million-$2.1 million for the three-month period ended June 30, 2011. This is smaller than the company’s previous estimate of an operating loss of $1.3 million-$2.5 million. The company expects gross margin to be around 80% for the three-month period.
Since updating its financial guidance, Glu Mobile shares are down 3.33%. In the same period the NASDAQ fell 4%. In the last one month the stock gained 25.07%, outperforming the NASDAQ, which is down 6.29%.
Zagg Inc. (NA
Tags: Glu Mobile, Mobile
Rosenberg Says 99% Chance of Another Recession by 2012
June 11th, 2011In a Bloomberg video David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, says there is a 99% Chance of Another Recession by 2012. Rosenberg also talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Selected Quotes
Bloomberg: How Certain are you that we may be headed for a recession
Rosenberg: I think that by 2012, I would give it a 99% chance. I say that because as an economist, you have to be part historian. When you have a manufacturing inventory cycle recession, they are usually separated 5 years apart. But when you have a balance sheet recession, credit contraction, asset deflation (for example residential real estate), the downturn tends to be separated every 2 to 2.5 years. … Economists call this a soft patch. It’s not like this is a soft patch. Basically, when all the stimulus is gone, you get to see what the emperor looks like disrobed. It’s not a pretty picture.
Tags: 2012, Recession 2012
Double Dip Fears Return
June 11th, 2011As last week drew to a close, the Dow ended below the 12,000 mark amidst increasing concerns regarding the rate of recovery of the US economy. The Dow was down 172.45 points to close at 11,951.91, while the S&P 500 ended the week down 18.02 points on 1,270,98 and the Nasdaq composite dropped by 41.14 points to 2,643,73, being 1.4 percent, 1.4 percent and 1.53 percent respectively. This is the sixth week in a row that markets on Wall Street suffered losses, making it the longest consecutive weekly loss since 2002.
While talk of a double dip in the recovery of the American economy had died down somewhat, economists surveyed by CNN who had previously been fairly upbeat about economic recovery, have cut their second quarter growth forecasts, with some revising full year estimates as well. The disappointing May jobs report, along with poor consumer spending, dismal home values and gloomy manufacturing statistics, is seen as an indication that the road to recovery has hit a detour. It didn’t help matters that up to 29,000 of the job cuts were made by the US government.
Why The Bounce Is Most Likely Not Over
June 10th, 2011Today was a good start to the bounce. However, its not overwith. I’ve done some studying in my days and I’m going to compile some screenshots of the way I think the bounce could go. There are two ways this is going.
Possibility 1: Today was enough to relieve conditions and we make one more new low. This is not what I think is going to happen, but its happened in the past. However, after that new low was made, the market went on a sustainable 2 week up move.
Possibility 2: We have 1-2 more days of up movement that takes the indexes close or tests their 21dema’s from the underside. I am playing for this possibility. Today did not satisfy what I think should have happened. There
Tags: Bounce